On Monday, June 26, the start of the week sees relatively calm markets as investors shift their focus to the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. The event will commence with a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde at 1730 GMT. In terms of economic indicators, the US will release the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Survey, while Germany’s IFO Institute will publish business sentiment data for June.

Over the weekend, tensions between the Wagner mercenary group and Russian President Vladimir Putin eased following a late Saturday agreement. Meanwhile, Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the economic committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), emphasized the need for China to take prompt measures to support the struggling post-COVID recovery in the second-largest economy worldwide. However, S&P Global revised down its forecast for China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 5.2% from 5.5% for this year. These developments have led investors to adopt a cautious approach on Monday, resulting in modestly lower US stock index futures.

The ECB’s forum, titled “Macroeconomic stabilisation in a volatile inflation environment,” will feature several prominent central bankers, including FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England President Andrew Bailey, who will speak at the event later in the week.

The US Dollar Index, which recently ended a three-week losing streak with a strong rebound in the latter part of the week, is currently in a consolidation phase below 103.00. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has dropped by over 1% and is below 3.7% during the European morning.

EUR/USD remains stable around 1.0900 on Monday, following slight losses last week.

GBP/USD came close to reaching 1.2700 during Asian trading hours on Monday but managed to bounce back towards 1.2750.

Gold prices benefit from declining US yields, rising to $1,930 during the European session after experiencing a loss of nearly 2% last week.